We have finally reached the culmination of the Eurovision 2022 season – it’s the grand final! As I write this, half the points have already been allocated at the jury show on the Friday evening. We won’t, of course, find out what those points are until the country-by-country vote announcements in the latter part of the Saturday show. So how do things stand with just the live final to go – and critically, who will win?
The betting odds favourite
The overwhelming favourite, which has been the case since late February, is Ukraine. Given what is happening in that part of the world, it is very understandable, but it would still need a good song and performance and that is exactly what they are bringing. “Stefania” has become a real anthem in Ukraine and you could easily see this getting an enormous televote (and Ukraine came second in televote last year, lest it not be forgotten!). It’s how big the televote is, and what the juries give it will be key. I am not sure it is so odds on as the betting suggests, but its status as the lead favourite is correct.
The other key contenders
Two countries that are perennial favourites at almost every modern Eurovision are hosts Italy and Sweden and this year is no exception. Italy have dropped a little in the odds (having been second to Ukraine for a long time) but are still up there in the top 5. Sweden comes in with a huge fan favourite. Both of these songs have the ability to pick up a lot of votes from both juries and televote.
Two countries that are most definitely not usually in the running are the two Big 5 countries of Spain and, yes, United Kingdom. These two have amazed in rehearsals and there is a real buzz about both of them among fans and for their prospects. Both Spanish and UK fans’ expectations are higher than they have been for years – it’s a testament to the turnaround for two countries who couldn’t muster a single vote from public last year. Spain are more likely to pick up televote, and UK more likely to pick up jury. At this stage, they might not quite get enough overall but will still do well, or either of them could genuinely win it!
There are a couple of dark horses that have generated a lot of buzz in rehearsals and during their semi-finals. Greece and Serbia each have potential of racking up a lot of votes – Greece with the juries and Serbia with televote. It may not be enough to secure a win but could still have a bearing on the overall result.
The running order
Running order (which has been decided by producers from 2013 onwards) is always much discussed and picked over and its impact on chances of a song’s success. I did do a little video about the running order which you can see below: