So after a decent result in terms of my predictions for semi-final 1, I’m back with my predictions for semi-final 2 and I am far less confident on how many I will get right! The overall level in this semi is high, with fewer completely stand above the rest performances, which means it’s all to play for to get a place in the grand final!
As before, I’ve clustered these into what I think are there qualification chances – not my personal favourites, but what I think will go through.
Serbia, Poland, Sweden and Czech Republic
I think the following four should be safe (though even for these four you potentially could make a case for some risk!)
Not going to the final
North Macedonia, Montenegro
Sadly I think it’s unlikely we will see these two go through. They have very fine singers who are great people but I just don’t see them picking up enough points from either side (juries and televote) to finish in the top 10.
Likely to qualify
Still more likely to qualify than not, but I have more doubt over these. Strong jury votes seem guaranteed – it’s just a question of how many televotes they need (potentially not many if jury votes are high).
Likely not to qualify
Georgia, Malta, Belgium
So this is a mixed bag of likely not qualifiers. In Georgia’s case, I love the fact it is so different, but it can be a bit repetitive and may not pick up enough votes on either side. Malta’s dated but catchy song may pick up some televote, but not enough and her jury performance wasn’t her best
Could go either way
Finland, Israel, San Marino, Cyprus, Ireland, Estonia, Romania
Really tricky here, have to choose 4 of these 7 – I’ve erred on side of San Marino for sheer iconic staging and being a majority Italian crowd, they go wild for it. I just hope this hasn’t been killed by juries. Estonia has had some staging issues (impacted by the “black sun”) but this is a catchy song and strong vocal that I think should do it.
For the final two, I’ve gone with Ireland and Romania – Ireland has the sheer energy and unashamed trashy pop, Romania is a solid example of uptempo ethnopop with some slick choreography. You could say similar about Israel but I think he may be more polarising, and it comes so early in running order. Both Cyprus and Finland could qualify, but I think Cyprus might not get a huge televote and she had an indifferent jury show performance while Finland did better in jury show than their rehearsals but anecdotally felt quite flat in the hall. It’s definitely easy to see any of my NQ three there qualifying instead of the four I have picked.
My predicted qualifiers
I think I’m aiming to get 6/10 rather than 8/10 or higher with this selection. Two or three of these may have been influenced by my personal preferences…
Serbia, Azerbaijan, San Marino, Australia, Ireland, Estonia, Romania, Poland, Sweden, Czech Republic