As has been the case for the last few years, the host broadcaster has determined the running order of the semi-finals (although countries had already been allocated into specific halves of their semi-final). At 7am (BST) this morning (8 April), the running orders were revealed. You can see the running orders below as well as some of initial predictions on who may or may not qualify.
Do you agree with my initial predictions?
From the moment the countries were drawn into either semi 1 or 2, it was pretty obvious that semi-final 1 is by far the stronger/tougher semi. It has one less country in it than semi 2, but the quality of the songs and countries in it mean it will be much tougher to qualify from. As well as the running orders, I’ve offered a tentative initial prediction on qualification chances. I stress it’s a very tentative one as predictions of who will qualify can change enormously when you finally get to see and hear the live rehearsals – live voice performance, staging, general vibe etc can all make these pre-rehearsal predictions a bit of a guess!
Semi-Final 1
First half
1. Finland
2. Greece
3. Moldova
4. Hungary
5. Croatia
6. The Netherlands
7. Armenia
8. San Marino
9. Russia
Second half
10. Czech Republic
11. Cyprus
12. Austria
13. Estonia
14. Azerbaijan
15. Montenegro
16. Iceland
17. Bosnia & Herzegovina
18. Malta
Predictions
Very likely to qualify:
Hungary; Croatia; Russia; Cyprus; Azerbaijan; Malta
More likely to qualify than not:
Armenia; Estonia; Iceland
Could go either way:
The Netherlands; Czech Republic; Austria
More likely to not qualify than qualify:
Greece; Bosnia & Herzegovina
Very unlikely to qualify:
Finland; Moldova; San Marino; Montenegro
Semi-Final 2
First half
1. Latvia
2. Poland
3. Switzerland
4. Israel
5. Belarus
6. Serbia
7. Ireland
8. FYR Macedonia
9. Lithuania
10. Australia
Second half
11. Slovenia
12. Romania
13. Bulgaria
14. Denmark
15. Ukraine
16. Norway
17. Georgia
18. Albania
19. Belgium
Predictions
Very likely to qualify:
Latvia; Serbia; Lithuania; Australia; Bulgaria; Ukraine; Norway
More likely to qualify than not:
Denmark
Could go either way:
Poland; Israel; Ireland; Albania
More likely to not qualify than qualify:
Switzerland; FYR Macedonia; Romania; Belgium
Very unlikely to qualify:
Belarus; Slovenia; Georgia
Those are my initial predictions based on the songs, running order; likely voting intentions and so on but what do you think? Comment below!