Eurovision 2016 semi-final running orders revealed: details and initial predictions

As has been the case for the last few years, the host broadcaster has determined the running order of the semi-finals (although countries had already been allocated into specific halves of their semi-final). At 7am (BST) this morning (8 April), the running orders were revealed. You can see the running orders below as well as some of initial predictions on who may or may not qualify.

Do you agree with my initial predictions?

From the moment the countries were drawn into either semi 1 or 2, it was pretty obvious that semi-final 1¬†is by far the stronger/tougher semi. It has one less country in it than semi 2, but the quality of the songs and countries in it mean it will be much tougher to qualify from. As well as the running orders, I’ve offered a tentative initial prediction on qualification chances. I stress it’s a very tentative one as predictions of who will qualify can change enormously when you finally get to see and hear the live rehearsals – live voice performance, staging, general vibe etc can all make these pre-rehearsal predictions a bit of a guess!

Semi-Final 1

First half

1. Finland

2. Greece

3. Moldova

4. Hungary

5. Croatia

6. The Netherlands

7. Armenia

8. San Marino

9. Russia

Second half

10. Czech Republic

11. Cyprus

12. Austria

13. Estonia

14. Azerbaijan

15. Montenegro

16. Iceland

17. Bosnia & Herzegovina

18. Malta


Very likely to qualify:

Hungary; Croatia; Russia; Cyprus; Azerbaijan; Malta

More likely to qualify than not:

Armenia; Estonia; Iceland

Could go either way:

The Netherlands; Czech Republic; Austria

More likely to not qualify than qualify:

Greece; Bosnia & Herzegovina

Very unlikely to qualify:

Finland; Moldova; San Marino; Montenegro

Semi-Final 2

First half

1. Latvia

2. Poland

3. Switzerland

4. Israel

5. Belarus

6. Serbia

7. Ireland

8. FYR Macedonia

9. Lithuania

10. Australia

Second half

11. Slovenia

12. Romania

13. Bulgaria

14. Denmark

15. Ukraine

16. Norway

17. Georgia

18. Albania

19. Belgium


Very likely to qualify:

Latvia; Serbia; Lithuania; Australia; Bulgaria; Ukraine; Norway

More likely to qualify than not:


Could go either way:

Poland; Israel; Ireland; Albania

More likely to not qualify than qualify:

Switzerland; FYR Macedonia; Romania; Belgium

Very unlikely to qualify:

Belarus; Slovenia; Georgia

Those are my initial predictions based on the songs, running order; likely voting intentions and so on but what do you think? Comment below!

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